June 15 2026

Market Movement Last week, the S&P 500 rose 0.65%, closing at 7,431.46 points, and is up 8.56% YTD. Market consensus places the average price target at 7,625 points for the end of 2026 (+2.65%). The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 13 basis points, closing at 4.44%. The DXY closed at 99.53. The VIX surged 24.42% and traded near 20. From these levels, we continue to expect an increase in short-term volatility. The market recovered slightly, driven by the Consumer Staples (+1.64%) and Utilities (+0.80%) sectors. At the same time, the market maintained a constructive outlook regarding the negotiations between the United States and Iran, which supported risk assets and put downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent falling around 3% for the week to sit near 88 USD per barrel. In the US, May inflation data was broadly in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year. This week, attention will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, while investors will closely monitor any indications regarding the monetary policy trajectory and events in the Middle East.

Analysis & Outlook Regarding the bond market, the spread between investment-grade bonds and Treasuries widened. This trend is expected to continue in the short term. Therefore, it is preferable to be positioned in interest rate instruments rather than credit. In this context, the market has been revising its expectations regarding the trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rates through 2026. Specifically, it now expects a 25 basis point hike in December, which would bring the interest rate to 4% by year-end. This shift in expectations was reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates, while the stock market experienced a correction after nine consecutive weeks of gains. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio for the SPX stands at 18.9x, below its five-year average of 19x. Consequently, with reduced risks of economic slowdown and potential recession, we are entering a period of greater uncertainty and volatility in interest rates. However, following last week’s correction after nine consecutive weeks of gains, valuations remain reasonable, which represents a medium-term opportunity. Therefore, we recommend focusing on high-quality sectors with strong balance sheets to navigate this environment. In this regard, we highlight sectors such as semiconductors, technology, banking, and industrials.